Inflation forecasting using the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with a time-varying trend
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Product Market Regulation, Trend Inflation and Inflation Dynamics in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
In this empirical paper, we take a close look at the impact of observed changes in the product market regulation, which raises barriers to entry and empediments to competition, on inflation dynamics since the early 1980s. We use an enlarged new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) allowing for entry of firms and for increasing competitive pressures with the number of firms and non zero trend inflati...
متن کاملInflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
www.philadelphiafed.org to the financial instruments that help guard savings from being eroded by inflation.1 Also, households and firms often write contracts that are stated in dollar amounts (nominal terms). A worker may, for example, sign a contract to work over the upcoming year for a fixed dollar amount. If inflation turns out to be higher than what was expected at the time the contract wa...
متن کاملThe New-Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Persistence
The New-Keynesian Phillips curve is usually reported to fit the data better when lagged inflation, and therefore backward-looking price setting, is included in the equation. We argue that the same inflation persistence can be generated by letting the shocks in the economy be highly correlated in a model where price setting is purely forward-looking. Previous estimates in the literature are bias...
متن کاملObserved Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
Estimating the micro-founded New Keynesian Phillips Curve using rational inflation expectation proxies has often found that the output gap is not a valid measure of inflation pressure. This paper investigates the empirical success of the NKPC in explaining US inflation, using observed measures of inflation expectations and taking account of serial correlation in the stylized NKPC. Contrary to r...
متن کاملEvolving Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
I n most industrialized economies, periods of above average inflation tend to be associated with above average economic activity, for example, as measured by a relatively low unemployment rate. This statistical relationship, known as the Phillips curve, is sometimes invoked when economic commentators suggest that monetary policy should not try to suppress signs of inflation. But this interpreta...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Economic Modelling
سال: 2020
ISSN: 0264-9993
DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.08.011